The infocommunication and media aspects and impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Hungary in relation to the market and the public administration theory

economic public administration, communications, media, COVID-19 pandemic

The pandemic caused by the new coronavirus has largely shaped the year 2020 and has changed people's life and lifestyle on a micro and macro level. It would be no exaggeration to say that the effect the pandemic has had on individuals, the society, the economy, culture etc. is incomprehensible and difficult to examine, even in segments. In this summary, the pandemic situation is explored with respect to infocommunication and media in a broader sense (the traditional, primarily electronic and social media).

This study was prepared thirteen months after the detection of the virus in Wuhan, China. Recently, the delivery of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and the vaccination of the population have begun, which offer reasons for hope, and now the end of the pandemic might be estimated to be in the foreseeable future. However, even with the application of the vaccines, the pandemic is not going to be over in a matter of weeks, what is more, a new variant of the new coronavirus has emerged in several countries, which spreads more easily.

Considering the complexity of the pandemic situation and the open-ended nature of the process, the aim of this study is to give a non-exhaustive, brief overview about the impact the pandemic has had on the infocommunication and media sectors, and about the particular phenomena that have occurred in these areas. The main achievements of the market and the public legislation regarding infocommunication and media in the pandemic-stricken year of 2020 will also be discussed briefly.

Due to the spread of the new coronavirus, most people have found themselves in a life situation they had never experienced before - including spending several weeks or months at home or possibly in isolation, the changed circumstances of work and school, or the uncertainty resulting from the economic recession. During the quarantine and the lockdown, electronic infocommunication has been playing a more important role; what is more, it has become paramount, strategically significant, and in terms of the national economy, the most prominent area. In these circumstances, the means to keep in touch, keep informed, study and relax made possible by the infocommunication services often become exclusive.

As a result of the pandemic, the use and load of electronic infocommunication services have increased. Voice and data traffic have grown, both in terms of fix and mobile services, networks. Most of the underlying causes are well-known facts mentioned above: quarantine, restrictions, home office, remote education etc. People have moved from an offline lifestyle onto an online one. Many white-collar workers have created a little office for themselves in a corner or a room of their home, where they organize video conferences with colleagues. In several cases, the pandemic has changed the volume of work, and blurred the line between working and free time. Children in full-time compulsory education participate in lessons via their computer, tablet or mobile. As a form of recreation, people can watch theatre plays performed in an empty theatre, "go to the cinema" and see what movies the streaming service providers have to offer, or watch television series online. Compared to the pre-pandemic period, home network load thus practically spans the entire day. Before the pandemic, the busiest hours were between 8 PM and 10 PM, however, since the pandemic, the busies hours have been between 9 AM and 10 PM - home office and distance education take place during the day, and the evening is for recreational use.

Due to the pandemic, fixed and mobile internet data traffic increased by 20-40 % in the spring of 2020 in Hungary. The telecommunication infrastructure in Hungary can handle an even larger load, and looking at the issue in a broader sense, it can be established that this was only a minor spike. While in 2010, the total internet traffic in Hungary was 100 petabyte, by 2019, this amount grew twelvefold, and according to the most recent estimates, it can triple or even quintuple by 2030. ¹⁾ The mobile market report by the National Media and Infocommunications Authority (hereinafter: NMHH) examining the first half of 2020 proves that people telephoned and used the internet more because of the pandemic. Owing to the virus situation, compared to the end of 2019, call traffic increased by 13.8 % and internet traffic grew by 30.1 %. ²⁾

The data and call traffic are also significantly bigger in the second, prolonged, larger wave of the coronavirus pandemic. Summary statements are not available yet, however, as can be seen in the traffic statistics of Budapest Internet Exchange (BIX) ³⁾ , internet traffic has increased.

All in all, infocommunication networks have been able to fulfil and handle the significantly increased demand for use, for which, naturally, the active and proactive behavior of the service providers and network development were essential.

A number of researches and surveys monitor the infocommunication aspect of the pandemic; for example, people can keep up with the processes and news on TeleGeography's website ⁴⁾ . The site describes these developments either in terms of network impacts or industry response, also taking into account the challenges emerging due to the presence of home office. Several of the news posted on the webpage confirm the increased traffic and bandwidth demand.

More prognoses, analysis and adjusted analyses in view of the development of the virus are available online. Regarding telecommunication and media, the analyses of Analysys Mason are the most authoritative. According to a forecast they published during the first wave ⁵⁾ , the infocommunication industry can only fully recover in 1-4 years. The report describes three scenarios: The first, optimistic scenario states that none of the economic areas will suffer much from the loss, they will recover in approximately one year, provided that by the end of 2020, an effective cure for coronavirus is developed. The second, realistic scenario is based on the prognoses of the International Monetary Fund issued in April 2020 for 2020 and 2021, pursuant to which at least two years is necessary for producing the same economic results as before. The third, pessimistic scenario anticipates a protracted slump, in which the second wave also prevents the normalization of the conditions, and presumes the occurrence of other events implying instability; this scenario expects the crisis caused by COVID-19 to be similar to the recession of 2008. The research done by Analysys Mason shows that in comparison to Q2 2019, the operating results of large infocommunication service providers in North America and Western Europe dropped by 5 % in Q2 2020. Compared to the same period of the previous year, these negative results were a general trend, and mainly mobile service revenues declined. This, however, was not due to the decrease of subscribers, but to the loss of roaming revenues. The increasing or stagnating number of subscribers was coupled with decreasing traffic revenue per subscriber - which did not necessarily mean that traffic declined, considering for example the several gigabyte free data traffic packages offered by service providers during the quarantine -, an